What does it mean that the mainline church is in such obvious decline? The fact of decline is no longer in dispute. The statistics are clear, and the efforts to reduce the trend are transparently desperate.

And yet, at the end of the day, the only reason the church is in decline is because we in the church have made poor decisions. We made bad investments. We made mistakes. Our intentions have been good, no doubt, but our effects and results have been – on the whole – disastrous.

It is good to remember that the church does not belong to us. It belongs to God. We are ultimately accountable – not to the statistics that we hold dear – but to the God that first called us and formed us as a body. I suspect that “decline” will define the church for most of the rest of my life. There is little sign that the institutional United Methodist Church is embracing the magnitude of change that would be necessary to change our reality. The fact is it took us decades to get to this point. It will take us decades to get out. I am confident we will get out – and that a new day will dawn for us as we respond more faithfully to the call of God and the needs of the communities we serve.

But for this time now, we need a theology of decline. We need to see in our decline the workings of God – perhaps in the cracks on the facades of our buildings. I do not believe that it was God’s intention for the church to fail so miserably. But I do believe that the decline we are in will be used by God to bring forth a transformed, revived, relevant church. That is a statement of faith. And it requires belief – not in bishops and conferences and denominational reports – but in a powerful, loving God who is not finished with us yet.

Gil Rendle describes this moment as a wilderness journey during which we have benefited much because we have learned much:

Our time in the wilderness has been spent productively searching multiple paths that might lead us to our more purposeful future. We now stand on the shoulders of those who have led and gone before us in this wandering. We now can claim and use with confidence their lessons, particularly in explorations of church growth, congregational transformation, and leadership development. (Gil Rendle in Journey in the Wilderness)

The question is whether we rightly apply what we have learned over the last forty years of decline. The way we answer that question will give expression to the theology of decline we have adopted. Is decline a meaningless result of cultural changes all around us? Is decline a unavoidable consequence of a scientific, technological, materialistic age? Is decline the product of a lack of faith in the “right” theological position? Or is decline an opportunity to learn, to more deeply engage with the historic triumphs of our tradition, to reflect on the deep truths of our scripture, to summon our greatest thinking and creativity, to respond pragmatically to the experiences of the real people and communities we are called to serve?

Rev. Dr. Robert Allen Hill, Dean of Marsh Chapel at Boston University, reflected on the meaning of Pentecost in the context of decline. His sermon is one of the best, most relevant pentecost sermons I’ve heard in a long time. Though highly critical of the current moment in the UMC, Hill points out some key areas of focus that could lead to transformation and that are no doubt the result of careful learning in the wilderness.